Daniel Adaji
Nigeria’s ranking at 52 per cent instability in the 2025 Africa Country Instability Risk Index is more than a numerical downgrade. It captures a deeper tension between reform efforts and the structural pressures that continue to test Africa’s largest economy.
The index, produced by SBM Intelligence and accessed by Datavox Media on Monday, offers a comparative lens through which Nigeria’s situation and that of the continent can be properly understood.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, the average instability score rose to 48 in 2025, up from 47.1 in 2024, despite the International Monetary Fund projecting regional growth of 3.8 per cent.
That disconnect highlights a central theme of the report: economic resilience has not yet translated into political or security stability. With over 620 million working-age Africans expected to enter the labour force by 2050, the cost of unresolved instability is rising.
Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s deterioration from 49 to 52 places it slightly worse than the continental average and firmly within a West African region grappling with political flux.
September 2025 rumours of a coup, which led to the detention of 16 officers and a swift military reshuffle by President Bola Tinubu, indicates lingering institutional fragility. While the move calmed immediate fears, it also reflected strains linked to subsidy removals and the social backlash from 2024 protests over hunger and governance.
What makes Nigeria’s ranking particularly instructive is that it worsened despite improving macroeconomic signals. Inflation eased to 18.02 per cent by September 2025, the naira showed signs of stabilisation, and foreign exchange liquidity improved under the “willing buyer–willing seller” framework, effectively narrowing the gap between official and parallel market rates.
A balance-of-payments surplus and improved investor confidence suggest a more resilient economic footing than in previous years. Yet, the index shows that economic correction alone is insufficient when insecurity, governance challenges, and social pressures persist.
A regional comparison sharpens the message. Southern Africa, with an average score of 35.2, remained the most stable region. South Africa’s score rose from 26 to 29 following coalition strains within its Government of National Unity and fiscal pressures, even as Zambia improved on the back of debt relief and a 4.3 per cent growth outlook.
Botswana recorded an improvement to a score of 83, supported by fiscal discipline, Qatar’s $12 billion investment commitment, and diversification into tourism, renewables, and seafood exports. Madagascar also improved significantly, cutting its score from 60 to 50 after youth-led protests prompted leadership change and constitutional reform momentum.
By contrast, East Africa was the weakest-performing region, sliding to an average score of 55.7. Tanzania’s score fell sharply to 67 after a heavily contested election delivered President Samia Suluhu Hassan a 98 percent victory that stifled opposition. Kenya improved modestly to 58 but remained under pressure from fiscal deficits, rising debt service costs, and protest spillovers linked to earlier tax reform efforts. Seychelles was the exception, improving to 27 after a credit rating upgrade and strong tourism-driven growth.
Central Africa ended 2025 with an average score of 56, weighed down by geopolitics. The Democratic Republic of Congo remained destabilised by the M23 conflict and tensions with Rwanda, while Cameroon’s election returned Paul Biya for an eighth term. Congo Brazzaville emerged as a relative bright spot with a score of 55, buoyed by improvements in political and historical risk indicators.
Within West Africa, Nigeria’s 52 compares unfavourably with Senegal’s 27, one of the continent’s strongest performers. Senegal’s improvement was driven by the resolution of the Casamance conflict and growth projections of up to 10 percent for 2025. At the other end of the scale, Mali (69) and Burkina Faso (72) remained deeply unstable, reflecting worsening security conditions and the limits of military-led governance.
Why does this index matter for Nigeria?
Because it frames risk in a way that investors, policymakers, and development partners understand. It explains why capital remains cautious, why reform dividends are slow to materialise socially, and why governance credibility is as important as fiscal discipline. Nigeria’s ranking suggests a country in transition, neither in crisis nor fully secure, where gains are real but fragile.
As 2026 approaches, SBM Intelligence warns that security risks may intensify, particularly if jihadist groups expand their reach in the Sahel, while democratic backsliding across the continent threatens governance scores.
For Nigeria, the implication is clear: sustaining macroeconomic reform must go hand in hand with restoring public trust, strengthening institutions, and addressing insecurity. Without that balance, future editions of the index may continue to show that progress, while visible, remains vulnerable.
